Road to the White House

Election 2024 Market Commentary

Join top strategists from Citi and learn about investment implications as we count down to the 2024 Elections.

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election 2024 | 2 min read

Final Days Before the Polls Close

November 1, 2024

The 2024 US Presidential election enters its final stretch with the polls still tight.

election 2024 | 2 min read

An Election Like No Other

October 8, 2024

Vice President Harris and former President Trump enter the final month of the campaign with the polls extremely close.

election 2024 | 2 min read

The 2024 US Presidential election has tightened since President Biden dropped out on July 21. Vice President Harris and former President Trump entered the September 10 debate with the polls and prediction site odds extremely close.

election 2024 | 2 min read

Close Race but Polls Matter More After the Debate

August 27, 2024

The 2024 US Presidential election has tightened since President Biden dropped out on July 21 and tossed his weight behind Vice President Kamala Harris to head the Democratic ticket.

election 2024 | 2 min read

A Wild Ride

July 22, 2024

It’s been a wild ride on the US political front of late. It amped up with a poor showing by President Biden in his June 27 debate performance against former President Trump, leading to a growing chorus within the Democratic Party calling for him to step down from the ticket.

election 2024 | 1 min read

How Impactful Are Debates?

June 25, 2024

Since televised debates began in 1960, meaningful shifts in the front-runner status resulting from a debate performance have only occurred a few times, in 1960, 1980, 2000 and 2012.

election 2024 | 1 min read

Polls, Incumbency & Balance of Power

May 8, 2024

Recent polls indicate that President Biden is trailing former President Trump. A poll released by CNN shows Trump leading nationally by 49% to 43% but this seems to be an outlier.

election 2024 | 1 min read

Returns Before & After Elections

March 8, 2024

Following two stronger-than-expected inflation reports earlier in the month, the market was relieved that the Fed’s favorite inflation measure, the Core PCE deflator, which excludes food and energy prices, was in line with expectations by rising 2.8% y/y through January.

election 2024 | 1 min read

Stock Market in Presidential Years

December 15, 2023

A constructive/challenging economic environment can be a tailwind/headwind for incumbents as well as for stocks.

election 2024 | 1 min read

Second Term Presidents

September 19, 2023

The 2024 election will determine if US domestic and foreign policy stays on course or changes direction. If former President Trump is the Republican nominee and wins re-election, that could mean higher tariffs, tighter borders, and an “America first” foreign policy.

Important Information

An investor cannot invest directly in an index. They are shown for illustrative purposes only and do not represent the performance of any specific investment. Index returns do not include any expenses, fees or sales charges, which would lower performance.

The MSCI ACWI (All Country World Index) captures large and mid cap representation across 23 Developed Markets (DM) and 23 Emerging Markets (EM) countries. With 2,483 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the global investable equity opportunity set.

S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged, market value-weighted index of 500 stocks generally representative of the broad stock market. An investment cannot be made directly in a market index.

Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of the 30 “blue-chip” stocks and serves as a measure of the U.S. market, covering such diverse industries as financial services, technology, retail, entertainment and consumer goods. An investment cannot be made directly in a market index.

The Nasdaq composite index is a market-capitalization weighted index of more than 3,000 common equities listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange. The types of securities in the index include American depositary receipts, common stocks, real estate investment trusts (REITs) and tracking stocks.

The MSCI Europe Index captures large and mid-cap representation across 15 Developed Markets (DM) countries in Europe. With 444constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization across the European Developed Markets equity universe.

The MSCI Japan Index is designed to measure the performance of the large and mid-cap segments of the Japanese market. With 320 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in Japan.

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index reflects performance of large and mid-cap stocks in roughly 20 emerging markets.

The Citi World Broad Investment Grade Bond index is weighted by market capitalization and includes fixed rate Treasury, government sponsored, mortgage, asset backed, and investment grade (BBB–/Baa3) issues with a maturity of one year or longer and a minimum amount outstanding of $1 billion for Treasuries, $5 billion for mortgages, and $200 million for credit, asset-backed and government-sponsored issues.

The Citi U.S. Broad Investment-Grade Bond Index (USBIG) tracks the performance of US Dollar-denominated bonds issued in the US investment-grade bond market. Introduced in 1985, the index includes US Treasury, government sponsored, collateralized, and corporate debt providing a reliable representation of the US investment-grade bond market. Sub-indices are available in any combination of asset class, maturity, and rating.

The Euro Broad Investment-Grade Bond Index (EuroBIG) is a multi-asset benchmark for investment-grade, Euro-denominated fixed income bonds. Introduced in 1999, the EuroBIG includes government, government-sponsored, collateralized, and corporate debt. Sub-indices are available in any combination of asset class, maturity, and rating.

The Citi Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Index (ESBI) includes Brady bonds and US dollar-denominated emerging market sovereign debt issued in the global, Yankee and Eurodollar markets, excluding loans. It is composed of debt in Africa, Asia, Europe and Latin America. We classify an emerging market as a sovereign with a maximum foreign debt rating of BBB+/Baa1 by S&P or Moody's. Defaulted issues are excluded.

The US High-Yield Market Index is a US Dollar-denominated index which measures the performance of high-yield debt issued by corporations domiciled in the US or Canada. Recognized as a broad measure of the North American high-yield market, the index includes cash-pay, deferred-interest securities, and debt issued under Rule 144A in unregistered form. Sub-indices are available in any combination of industry sector, maturity, and rating.

The Weekly Market Update report should not be considered a recommendation or research report. Nor should it be considered a solicitation, advice or a recommendation with respect to any investment strategy, asset allocation or particular investment. The Weekly Market Update is not intended to constitute “research,” as that term is defined by applicable regulations. The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Citigroup Global Markets Inc. or its affiliates. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Neither the information provided nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. The expressions of opinion are not intended to be a forecast of future events or a guarantee of future results.

There may be additional risk associated with international investing, including foreign, economic, political, monetary and/or legal factors, changing currency exchange rates, foreign taxes, and differences in financial and accounting standards. These risks may be magnified in emerging markets. International investing may not be for everyone.

Bonds are affected by a number of risks, including fluctuations in interest rates, credit risk and prepayment risk. In general, as prevailing interest rates rise, fixed income securities prices will fall. Bonds face credit risk if a decline in an issuer’s credit rating, or creditworthiness, causes a bond’s price to decline. High yield bonds are subject to additional risks such as increased risk of default and greater volatility because of the lower credit quality of the issues. Finally, callable bonds can be subject to prepayment risk. When interest rates fall, an issuer may choose to borrow money at a lower interest rate, while paying off its previously issued bonds. As a consequence, those investors who held the called bond will be forced to reinvest in a market where prevailing interest rates are lower than when the initial investment was made.

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Investments are subject to market fluctuation, investment risk, and possible loss of principal.

Diversification and asset allocation do not protect against loss or guarantee a profit. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

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These strategies do not necessarily represent the experience of other clients, nor do they indicate future performance or success. Investment results may vary. The investment strategies presented are not appropriate for every investor. Individual clients should review with their advisor the terms and conditions and risk involved with specific products or services.

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