Heading North in November

Monthly Market Snapshot: November 2019


As winter approaches, stocks headed north instead of south in November with global equities rallying an impressive 2.3% during the month. Performance was even stronger in the U.S. with the S&P 500 surging 3.4% as recession fears continued to fade as trade tensions appeared to ease. International returns were slightly lower with European shares rising just 1.5% and Japanese shares eking out a 0.6% gain. Emerging markets slipped 0.2%.

Global manufacturing surveys (outside of the U.S.) have improved of late and may be signaling a bottoming out of the global economy. In the U.S., the decline in manufacturing activity has been sharper than the decline in consumer demand — which should imply an eventual rebound in production. However, a re-escalation of trade tensions (or a fresh round of tariffs) could pose a risk to this narrative. Investors will be focused on December 15th, which is when the next round of U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods are scheduled to take effect.

Citi’s Private Bank’s Global Investment Committee (GIC) moved from a neutral position on global equities to an overweight position. This move was funded by a decline in the cash position and a deeper underweight in European sovereign debt.