Citi Personal Wealth Management

A Jumbo July

Monthly Market Snapshot: July 2020

Highlights

Stocks across most markets experienced solid gains with the MSCI All Country World Index rising an impressive 5.1% in July. In the United States, the S&P 500 edged 5.5% higher while the tech-heavy NASDAQ jumped another 6.8%. Returns for the S&P 500 and NASDAQ are now positive year-to-date. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell 13 basis points to 0.53%.

The resurgence of COVID-19 may have dampened economic activity in July, but most signs still point to a continued economic recovery. Citi’s U.S. economists are expecting growth to rebound by an annualized rate that is north of 20% in the third quarter. However, we would need an annualized rate of about 50% to return to pre-COVID levels. A full economic recovery will likely not occur until 2021, but the stock market generally moves ahead of the economy.

Citi Private Bank’s Global Investment Committee (GIC) maintains an overweight on global equities, including U.S. small-cap shares, and select emerging markets (in Asia and Latin America). The GIC is also overweight select real estate investment trusts (REITS). European and Japanese stocks are being held at a neutral weighting.