highlights, closing performance,
market indicators and the
Stocks Eye Debt-Limit Talks
May 22, 2023
Once the 2023 debt ceiling “crisis” passes, US markets will face “late cycle” conditions, as tight monetary policy from the Fed seeks to weaken labor markets.
You Really Don’t Want to Hit the Debt Ceiling
May 15, 2023
When the US Congress created the “debt ceiling” during World War I, its intent was to speed along government spending while maintaining a way to ensure responsible borrowing. The US debt ceiling has been raised or suspended nearly annually since 1917.
Banking on Quality
May 8, 2023
The Fed raised rates by 0.25% to likely end its hiking cycle. The unemployment rate for April was 3.4% as the economy created a higher-than-expected 253k jobs but the prior two-month tally was revised 149k lower.
Fed’s Last Stand
May 1, 2023
Investors looked past slower-than-expected first quarter real GDP growth of just 1.1% as companies exceeded previously lowered earnings estimates ahead of what could be the final Fed rate increase of its tightening campaign.
Seeking to Add Growth to Portfolios
April 24, 2023
The S&P 500 was little changed after a flurry of earnings reports revealed the nation's biggest banks were in better shape than some had feared. Smaller banks saw their deposits stabilize but leading economic indicators pointed to a softer economy ahead.
The Investor’s Conundrum
April 17, 2023
The first big banks to report benefited from higher rates, deposit flows from smaller banks, and volatility that boosted fixed income trading revenues. The market now expects the Fed to raise rates one last time by 0.25% on May 3rd.
Mixed Data for the Fed
April 10, 2023
On Friday, March payroll data showed 236K jobs being added, indicating “net” employment was still positive, while the unemployment rate remained low at 3.5%. Wage gains, at 4.2% y/y, continued to cool from a year ago pace of 5.9%.
Inflation, Jobs, and Banks
April 3, 2023
This week, the market will focus on Friday’s jobs report. The economic community is calling for 238K jobs to have been created in March with an unchanged unemployment rate of 3.6%. Average hourly earnings gains are expected to slow.
As Go the Banks, So Goes the Economy
March 27, 2023
Days after officials moved to protect the depositors of failed lenders Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, the largest US banks made $30 billion in deposits with First Republic Bank to help stem the outflow of deposits at regional banks.