Our Expectations
- Global GDP growth: 1.7% in 2023, 2.3% in 2024
- Shallow 2023 recession in the US, worse in Europe and UK
- China to see recovery as COVID restrictions ease
- US inflation falls to 3.5% by end-2023 and 2.5% by end-2024
- Global earnings per share to fall 10% in 2023
- Fed to start cutting interest rates by second half of 2023
- Among the greatest risks to our outlook would be persistent 1970s-style inflation
- By contrast, the US might avoid recession if inflation drops faster than expected
- Other improbable risks include US-China military escalation or complete trade breakdown