An Election Like No Other

Road to the White House

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Vice President Harris and former President Trump enter the final month of the campaign with the polls extremely close.

According to the Real Clear Politics (RCP) national poll average, Harris is ahead by 2.0% while Trump is ahead by 0.1% in the battleground states. The winner has averaged a 0.63% gain between the final poll and the actual vote since 1936.

Historically, the stock market has been more prone to pullbacks before the election when the challenger wins. Returns have been higher for second term Presidents until the end of the term when succession uncertainty rises, and when control of the White House, Senate and House have been somehow shared by both parties (see full report ).

In 2024, the Republicans have a good chance of taking the Senate. The current Democratic 51–49 control may turn 50–50 on the retirement of Senator Manchin (West Virginia).

In addition, Democrats are defending two seats in red states that Trump won decisively in 2020, Montana and Ohio, plus others in the battleground states.

If Harris is paired with a GOP Senate, it could restrict who she can get confirmed to serve in her administration, as well as what legislation she’d be able to pass, even if the Democratic party takes the House.

When it Comes to the Issues, Republicans Are from Mars, Democrats Are from Venus

When it comes to the issues that matter most to voters, except for the economy, Harris and Trump supporters might as well be from different planets (FIGURE 1). The Pew Research Center found Harris supporters, among other things, care more about Health Care-related issues, Supreme Court appointments, climate change and inequality while Trump supporters care more about immigration, crime, and foreign policy. The economy ranked as the top overall issue and while it is very important to both sides, it appears to matter more to Trump supporters.

Figure 1: % of Registered Voters Who Say Each Is Very Important to their Vote in the 2024 Presidential Election

Voting Issue	Harris Supporters	Trump Supporters	All voters
Economy	68	93	81
Health Care	76	55	65
Supreme Court Appointments	73	54	63
Foreign Policy	54	70	62
Violent Crime	46	76	61
Immigration	39	82	61
Gun Policy	59	53	56
Abortion	67	35	51
Racial and Ethnic inequality	56	18	37
Climate Change	62	11	37

More at right

Source: Pew Research Center (survey of US adults conducted Aug 26-Sep 2, 2024). All forecasts are expressions of opinion and are subject to change without notice and are not intended to be a guarantee of future events. Shown for illustrative purposes only. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Real results may vary.

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