A constructive/challenging economic environment can be a tailwind/headwind for incumbents as well as for stocks.
In year’s when the incumbent party’s candidate subsequently won the Presidential election, the stock market performed better in the beginning of the year, on average, while the early primaries and Super Tuesday contests were taking place, as well as the sitting President’s State of the Union Address.
Battleground States
While a lot of attention is given to national polls, in 2024 the Presidential election will likely come down to the battleground states such as Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. President Biden won all these states in 2020 but early polling has former President Trump ahead in five of the six with Wisconsin being the exception.
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