Returns Before & After Elections

Road to the White House

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Following Super Tuesday and the State of Union address, PredictIt assigns Trump 93% odds of being the Republican nominee. President Biden has 83% odds of being the Democratic nominee.

The ultimate Democratic nominee has 52% odds of winning in November versus 49% for the GOP challenger. Meanwhile, the recent polling has been more positive for Trump.

Historically, defensive positioning in stocks and bonds has performed better in the six months before the November election while cyclical positioning has done better in the six months after. In 2024, the two likely nominees have each seen positive S&P 500 returns in their first terms.

Policy Differences & Sector Preferences

A second Trump presidency could mean higher tariffs, lower taxes, a more American-first agenda, and less regulation than another Biden term. But few candidates can fully deliver on their campaign promises after being elected or reverse engrained policies if it requires the cooperation of a divided government or one with small majorities.

10 Significant US Presidential Elections

Ten of the most significant Presidential elections occurred in 1796, 1800, 1824, 1828, 1860, 1876, 1896, 1912, 1932 and 2000. Learn why they were so consequential.